No Baby Boom in 2024 Dragon Year: Singapore’s Fertility Stays at Record Low
Despite hopes for a “Dragon Year” baby boom, Singapore’s total fertility rate (TFR) in 2024 remained at 0.97, the same historic low recorded in 2023. This marks the first Dragon Year since 1964 in which fertility did not rise from the previous year.
Key Findings
- Citizen births rose slightly by 1.2% (29,237 in 2024 vs. 28,877 in 2023), but this was offset by a larger pool of women of childbearing age—showing no change in fertility behaviour.
- Traditionally, Dragon Years (considered auspicious for births) saw significant increases in fertility, such as in 1988 and 2000, but the effect has now weakened.
- Chinese women’s TFR ticked up marginally from 0.81 (2023) to 0.83 (2024), while Malay and Indian women’s TFRs declined.
Why Fertility Remains Low
- Financial pressures, career trade-offs, high cost of living, and childcare concerns outweigh beliefs in zodiac auspiciousness.
- More Singaporeans are marrying later, delaying childbearing, or choosing to remain child-free.
- Rising education levels have reduced reliance on traditional beliefs like Dragon Year planning.
Long-Term Challenges
- With fertility below 1, Singapore faces an existential demographic challenge:
- A shrinking future workforce.
- Greater reliance on foreign labour and immigration.
- Rising care burdens as the population ages.
- By 2026, Singapore will officially become a super-aged society (over 21% aged 65+).
Policy Response
The government has expanded parental leave, childcare subsidies, and flexible work policies, and recently launched the Large Families Scheme, offering up to $16,000 for each third and subsequent child.
